More on the Guns Study

Andrew Leigh’s thread continues to generate interesting comments on the recent study on gun deaths, including this one by Christine where she analyses the data. In particular she examines the log return (ie. percentages) rather than the absolute return which the study focused on, and finds firstly there is close to a break in the trend in 2004 if you consider the log return, and comments that the finding appears to be closer to “there is no definite effect” rather than there “was no effect”.

Don Weatherburn has an op-ed in the SMH where he discusses the study and the effect of the laws saying:

It doesn’t follow, however, that restrictions on firearm ownership should be dropped. The gun buyback may not have had any effect on the rate of firearm homicide but any policy that permitted large increases in the supply of guns in the community could still produce untoward effects.

The Port Arthur massacre graphically demonstrated the catastrophic effects that result when the wrong people get hold of guns. This is dangerous ground and we need to tread carefully.

Also Andrew has another post examining the study’s interpretation of the analysis of suicide by firearm.

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